Measuring the Seemingly Unmeasurable: Unveiling the Significance of Long-Term Brand Value in a Short-Term World
By Gurkan Sener, VP, Global Marketing Analytics & Targeting, Universal Destinations & Experiences
Venkat Kokku, Data Scientist, Marketing Data Science, Universal Destinations & Experiences
In today's metrics-obsessed world, where dashboards light up in real-time and quarterly reports dictate strategy, brand marketing often gets the short end of the stick.
We expect brand media to behave like performance media, delivering instant conversions and measurable ROI. But here's the truth: brand doesn't work on demand. Its most powerful effects unfold slowly, quietly, and often invisibly. Until they don't. This is the power of brand marketing that we should be inspired to invest in.
This creates a challenge. How do you protect brand investment in a world hooked on short-term returns? How do you prove value when the payoff might not show up for 12, 24, or even 36 months?
The answer is both analytical and philosophical. We need to rethink how we measure marketing. Specifically, we need to adopt unified attribution models: an integrated, multi-method approach that captures both the sprint of performance and the marathon of brand. This is the approach that we should adopt for a comprehensive view of our marketing efforts.
Why Traditional Attribution Falls Short
Most attribution models were built for performance marketing. They excel at tracking clicks, conversions, and the final touchpoints before a purchase. But when it comes to brand media—TV, YouTube, CTV, sponsorships—these models are practically blind.
Brand works upstream. It builds mental availability and lays the groundwork for preference, trust, and loyalty. These shifts don't happen in seven-day windows. When our attribution models stop there, we undervalue the very channels that generate future demand and over-credit the ones that close the sale.
That misalignment leads to over-investing in the bottom of the funnel. We chase short-term wins, starving the brand equity that makes performance media work in the first place. Over time, this raises acquisition costs, weakens pricing power, and puts long-term growth at risk.
What Long-Term Brand Impact Really Means
Long-term brand impact is not just about awareness. It is about measurable business value that accrues over time.
When you invest in your brand consistently, you increase awareness, consideration, and trust. These "soft" metrics drive hard outcomes: higher conversion rates, lower churn, improved lifetime value, and more pricing power.
Think of it like compound interest. Each campaign builds on the last. Each brand impression strengthens memory and shapes perception. But consistency is key. Brand equity fades without fuel.
How Fast Does Brand Equity Decay?
If you think brand equity is permanent, think again. It's like muscle: use it or lose it.
Research from Nielsen and the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute shows:
● Brands that stop advertising for six months can lose 30–40% of top-of-mind awareness.
● In fast-moving categories, mental availability can drop by 50% in just 3 to 6 months.
● Even in slower sectors like travel or automotive, brand equity begins eroding within 6 to 12 months.
Worse, rebuilding equity is expensive. Once you go dark, you often have to overspend to regain lost ground. That's why continuity is not just a best practice; it is a safeguard.
A Smarter Measurement Approach: Unified Attribution
There is no one-size-fits-all model for measuring brand. But a unified approach that combines different methods across time horizons can help you capture the whole picture.
| Method | Best For | Time Horizon | Use Case |
| MMM | Long-term media ROI | 6–24 months | Estimating brand impact from CTV |
| Incrementality Testing | Causal validation | 1–3 months | Geo test to isolate brand campaign lift |
| MTA | Short-term pathing | 0–30 days | Optimizing digital media |
| Brand Lift + Econometrics | Brand KPI to revenue links | 3–12 months | Connecting awareness to LTV |
Each of these plays a role. Together, they create a full-funnel, cross-functional view of how brand works.
From Brand Equity to Revenue: The Chain Reaction
Let's break it down:
Brand Investment: TV, CTV, digital video, sponsorships; building perception and emotional connection
Brand Equity Outcomes: Increases in awareness, trust, and consideration
Behavioral Signals: More branded search, direct traffic, and ad engagement
Financial Impact: Lower CAC, higher LTV, better marketing efficiency
Long-Term ROI: Compounded gains that peak in Year 2 or 3
This is the story you need to tell your CFO.
Show Me the Money: Talking Finance's Language
Finance teams don't speak in impressions or favorability lifts. They speak in ROI curves, depreciation models, and investment timelines.
So, frame brand like a capital investment:
● Year 1: -5% net ROI (initial spend)
● Year 2: +25% ROI (brand starts paying off)
● Year 3: +40% ROI (compounded LTV, lower churn)
This is not fuzzy math. MMM and econometric models can attribute long-term revenue to brand investment. Incrementality tests can prove lift. Predictive models can forecast out the curve.
When you position brand as an appreciating asset—not just a cost center—you're reframing the conversation. Just like a building or a piece of equipment, your brand is an asset that appreciates over time. It's not just about the initial investment; it's about the long-term value it brings to the business.
Planning for Brand Like You Plan for Growth
Treat brand spend like infrastructure - plan in years, not quarters. Build continuity, not just bursts - model what happens if you go dark. Collaborate with Finance to align brand KPIs to business outcomes.
Build dashboards that reflect value over time. Create business cases that demonstrate how the brand drives the funnel from end to end.
What Gets Measured Gets Protected
Brand media is not a luxury. It is a long-term growth engine. But to defend it, we need to measure it differently.
Unified attribution gives us the tools to connect top-of-funnel investment to bottom-line results. It lets us manage the brand like an appreciating asset. It helps marketers speak the language of risk, return, and growth.
When we measure what matters—and do it in a way that Finance understands—we don't just protect the brand; we invest in the future of the business.
Citations
● Nielsen, "The Long and Short of ROI," 2022
● Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, "Building Mental Availability," 2021
● Meta & Analytic Partners, "The Compounding Impact of Brand," 2023
● Binet & Field, "The Long and the Short of It," IPA, 2013
● McKinsey & Co., "Why Brands Must Balance Long- and Short-Term Growth," 2022
